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Tag Archives: economy

Unemployment Numbers Don’t Matter? Wanna Bet?

12 Tuesday Jul 2011

Posted by Craig in economy, Obama, Politics, Unemployment

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

economy, Florida, Obama, Romney, Sunshine State News Poll, unemployment

What was that again, Mr. Plouffe? People won’t vote based on the unemployment rate?

“A slipping economy has Floridians moving away from President Barack Obama and warming up to Republican Mitt Romney, a Sunshine State News Poll shows.

The survey of 1,000 likely voters shows that 54 percent disapprove of the job Obama is doing while just 38 percent approve. That result tracks with Florida voters’ sour view of the economy, with 56 percent saying it has worsened in the past year.

“Clearly, the bleak economic landscape is not good news for Obama. This is quite sobering when you consider that the recession technically ended in summer of 2009, which really shows that people don’t believe we are out of the woods by any stretch,” said Jim Lee, president of Harrisburg, Pa.-based Voter Survey Service, which conducted the poll for Sunshine State News.

Today’s numbers may be even worse for Obama, considering that the July 5-7 survey concluded a day before the latest jobless figures were released last Friday. The national unemployment rate rose again to 9.2 percent as the economy added just 18,000 jobs in June.

“Obama’s negative job approval shows there is a major opening for the GOP to win the state in 2012, particularly when you consider that Obama only won by a close 51-48 margin last time,” Lee said. “No president since FDR has won re-election when the unemployment rate on Election Day topped 7.2 percent.”

Economists calculate that the economy would have to add a whopping 250,000 jobs every month for the next year to drive the unemployment rate below 7.5 percent.”

You might want to re-think that re-election strategery, Fluffy.

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Is 9% Unemployment the New Norm?

28 Wednesday Jul 2010

Posted by Craig in economy, Obama, Obama administration, Politics, Unemployment

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

$2 trillion, 2012, 27 weeks or more, 9% or higher, Chamber of Commerce, corporations, economy, long-term unemployed, Meet The Press, onerous regulations, private investment, profits, recovered sufficiently, Republican Congress, Timothy Geithner, unemployment, White House

Considering this:

“Nearly half of the unemployed—45.9%—have been out of work longer than six months, more than at any time since the Labor Department began keeping track in 1948…Overall, seven million Americans have been looking for work for 27 weeks or more, and most of them—4.7 million—have been out of work for a year or more.”

And this:


How do you get to this?:

“Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the economy has now recovered sufficiently for government to begin to make way for private business investment.

Mr. Geithner’s comments on Sunday, which echo previous sentiments expressed by President Barack Obama, reflect a turning point in the government response to the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, a period marked by deep federal intervention in the financial, housing, auto and other industries.

“We need to make that transition now to a recovery led by private investment,” Mr. Geithner said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

Led by private investment? Corporations are sitting on nearly $2 trillion of profits now and unemployment is still hovering around 10%. Just when is this private investment going to kick in and start hiring?

“A survey last month of more than 1,000 chief financial officers by Duke University and CFO magazine showed that nearly 60 percent of those executives don’t expect to bring their employment back to pre-recession levels until 2012 or later — even though they’re projecting a 12 percent rise in earnings and a 9 percent boost in capital spending over the next year.”

“2012 or later” huh? Something else significant is scheduled for 2012, isn’t it? Conspicuously convenient timing for the unemployment picture to start improving if you ask me.

Why aren’t corporations hiring now? The Chamber of Commerce claims it’s because of the “onerous regulations” being placed on them by the Obama administration. Now if one had a conspiratorial mind one might think that big business wants to keep the unemployment numbers high through 2012 so that they get a Republican Congress this year to be followed by a Republican president in 2012 who would cancel all those “onerous regulations.” One might think that, and one would be right, in my opinion.

Sadly, the administration seems to be willing to accept 9% or higher as the new norm:

“The White House said Friday it expects that unemployment will stay at or above 9% until 2012, but at the same time forecast that the economy will grow by at least 4% in 2011 and 2012.”

To whom it may concern at the White House:

If you seriously think that the economy has “recovered sufficiently” so that the government can get out of the way and let private investment take over on job creation; if you’re willing to accept unemployment at 9% or above through 2012; schedule the moving vans for the morning of January 20, 2013.

Remember Issues? Straight Talk About The Deficit

11 Thursday Sep 2008

Posted by Craig in Election 2008, McCain, Obama, Politics, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

CBO, economic projections, economy, issue, lipstick, McCain, Palin, pigs

Lost in all the media lunacy over pigs and lipstick were the economic projections released by the CBO this week. So instead of talking about the latest McCain campaign smear or repeating Sarah Palin’s lie about the Bridge to Nowhere for the 1,000th time, let’s discuss an actual issue, the economy. I know this election isn’t supposed to be about issues, but it might be a nice diversion.

From the Washington Post:

“A weak economy and a sharp increase in government spending will drive the federal budget deficit to a near-record $407 billion when the budget year ends later this month, and the next president is likely to face a shortfall in January of well over $500 billion, congressional budget analysts said yesterday.

This year’s deficit will be more than double last year’s $161 billion, and it will rise from 1.2 percent of the gross domestic product to nearly 3 percent.”

To make matters worse,  these numbers don’t take into account the government bailout of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, which could add as much as $200 billion to that figure.

So how do our 2 presidential candidates intend to tackle this growing deficit monster? Senator Obama wants to allow the Bush tax cuts to expire on those making over $250,000 a year, increasing revenue to the Treasury. Senator McCain wants to cut taxes further, making the deficit even larger.

Here is a chart showing the projections of what the effect of McCain’s plan could be:

McCain’s solution to the deficit problem is to eliminate earmarks and reduce spending, offsetting the reduction in revenue that further tax cuts would bring. Although both of these sound good to the ear of the average taxpayer, the facts are that neither one is a feasible solution to the problem.
By most estimates, earmarks accounted for approximately $16 billion in 2007. Even if they are completely eliminated, which is highly unlikely, the effect on the deficit would be the equivalent of spitting in the ocean and hoping to make the tide rise.

Cutting spending is a similar situation. It is a familiar campaign promise by Republicans, but the question is, what do you cut? Senator McCain is short on specifics.

The facts are that 80% of the federal budget is spent on three things–entitlements, defense, and interest on the debt. These three accounted for $2.3 trillion out of a $2.8 trillion budget in 2007. That means all discretionary spending totals $500 billion. These are dollars spent on things like education, transportation, veteran’s benefits, agriculture, science and technology, energy, and the environment.

So which of these does Senator McCain intend to eliminate? Again, no specifics have been given.

Since McCain is not going to reduce defense spending, to the contrary, he will more than likely increase it, and since interest payment on the debt is fixed, that leaves entitlements, specifically Social Security and Medicare.

These two make up 36% of total federal expenditures. To make any serious reduction in government spending, McCain would have to make drastic cuts in one or both. I haven’t heard that promise from his campaign, have you? Not likely you will, either.

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